As we inch closer to the 2024 presidential election, enthusiasm among conservative circles is palpable, with many buoyed by Donald Trump’s current lead in key battleground states. However, commentators like PJ Media’s Stephen Kruiser urge caution, warning that unless Trump decisively wins, the now-infamous mail-in ballots could swing the result in favor of Kamala Harris after election night.
Kruiser’s argument stems from lingering skepticism about the integrity of mail-in voting, a method that many Republicans feel was manipulated during the 2020 election. In that race, Trump was ahead on election night in numerous swing states, only to see his lead evaporate as mail-in ballots, which skewed heavily Democrat, were counted later.
Roseanne makes the crowd go wild.💥💥💥💥💥
"They stole that election in 2020. They gave us g*ddamn COVID so we'd send in those mail-order ballots and all that bullshit and the post office cheated too. Everybody in this country cheated us out of our president in twenty-twenty.… pic.twitter.com/DUFdBep9CW
— Leah Rain ✝️🇺🇸🎸🏝️ (@LeahRain77) September 27, 2024
Given that Democrats are more likely to vote by mail, a similar pattern could repeat this year, which makes it crucial for Trump to secure a large enough lead on Election Day to withstand a late surge of mail-in ballots.
Polling data continues to suggest a tight race. While Trump holds narrow leads in states like Georgia and Pennsylvania, those margins remain within the poll’s margin of error. Pollsters have highlighted the concern that these results may not be fully capturing Trump’s strength with key voter groups, especially Hispanics and union members. Despite this optimism, Shapiro also warns that polling could be underestimating Democratic turnout, particularly among young voters.
And here it is,
CONSPIRACY DAY November 3, 2020,
16,000 HOURS OF SURVEILLANCE VIDEO VIOLATING THE LAW,
3 hours and 15 minutes after polls closed in Michigan, Detroit Heilmann voting center.
Dana Nessel and Jocelyn Benson loading thousands of MAIL-IN- BALLOTS into a minivan… pic.twitter.com/KD7W8QS9yW
— 🇺🇸RealRobert🇺🇸 (@Real_RobN) September 25, 2024
The “magic” of mail-in ballots lies not only in the sheer volume of late-counted votes but also in the risk of errors or fraud. Legal battles over mail-in voting procedures are already unfolding in critical states like Pennsylvania, where a recent court decision raised the stakes by potentially invalidating thousands of mail-in ballots due to errors on the return envelopes.
Even minor administrative issues like these can have significant consequences, especially in states where elections are often decided by razor-thin margins.
Moreover, ground game efforts from both campaigns could also determine the outcome. While Harris and the Democrats are pouring resources into door-to-door campaigning and outreach, some GOP strategists are concerned that Trump’s campaign has yet to establish a similarly robust grassroots operation. This is worrisome, especially in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, where voter turnout and mobilization efforts can tilt the balance of power.
In conclusion, while Trump’s current polling advantage is promising for his supporters, the lesson from 2020 is clear: winning the in-person vote isn’t enough. To avoid another post-election swing caused by mail-in ballots, Trump needs to be “outside the margin of magic” — far enough ahead on Election Day to counter any gains Harris might make with late-arriving mail-in votes.
