With just weeks left before the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump has gained a slim but significant lead in the key battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin, according to new polling data from Quinnipiac University. The poll, conducted from October 3 to 7, reveals Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 47% in Michigan and 48% to 46% in Wisconsin, marking a sharp turnaround from earlier polls in which Harris had held the advantage.
These results are particularly troubling for Democrats, as Michigan and Wisconsin are pivotal states Harris must win to secure a path to victory in the Electoral College. Trump’s resurgence in the Rust Belt comes as Harris struggles to maintain her earlier post-debate boost, with her lead shrinking or evaporating entirely in these critical regions.
JUST IN: WISCONSIN has now flipped for Trump in Polymarket.
He now holds an advantage in 6 of 7 battleground states. pic.twitter.com/EZVhWd2GwQ
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 9, 2024
The poll underscores a broader trend of declining support for Harris, especially on key issues such as the economy and immigration, where Trump has consistently outperformed her across multiple states. In Michigan, Trump's favorability on the economy remains a driving force behind his rise, while Harris continues to lead narrowly on topics like democracy preservation and abortion rights.
The recent shift in polling data mirrors Trump's 2016 strategy, where he narrowly flipped Michigan and Wisconsin, two traditionally Democratic states. In 2020, however, Joe Biden won both states, but by margins slimmer than many expected. Trump’s lead now suggests a potential repeat of his 2016 electoral success in the region.
Mrs Walz is doing all she can to help Trump win Wisconsin pic.twitter.com/OwOmPlaNsc
— Matt Batzel (@MattBatzel) October 10, 2024
Harris still holds a narrow advantage in Pennsylvania, with 49% to Trump’s 46%, but this lead has diminished significantly from a 7-point margin in mid-September. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin collectively represent the heart of the so-called “Blue Wall,” which Democrats must defend to avoid a Trump victory in the electoral map. If Trump continues to build momentum in these states, Harris’s path to victory could narrow considerably.
In addition to the presidential race, the Quinnipiac poll also surveyed voters on down-ballot races, showing a tight Senate race in Michigan between Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers. Both candidates are tied at 48%, indicating that the Republican momentum could affect congressional outcomes as well. Meanwhile, Democrats maintain a lead in Senate races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both held by incumbent Democratic senators.
The polls show that Harris’s decline is being driven, in part, by shifting attitudes among independent voters and discontent over the administration's handling of foreign policy. In Michigan, the poll reveals a significant gap on issues related to the Middle East, particularly concerning President Biden’s response to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which has resonated negatively with the state's substantial Muslim population.
With the race tightening in these key states, both campaigns are ramping up their efforts. Trump is holding a series of rallies, including two major events in Pennsylvania this week, while Harris’s team is focusing on mobilizing voters in urban and suburban areas, where Democratic turnout will be crucial. The final weeks of campaigning are likely to see both sides focusing heavily on the battleground states of the Midwest as they seek to secure the electoral votes needed to win the White House.
