For decades, China and Japan have had strained relations. The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are currently a source of contention and may become a flashpoint between the two countries. Both nations’ military presence in the region has grown. Territorial sovereignty and historical claims are just two of the many issues surrounding the islands. The conflict has far-reaching global consequences.
Rising Tensions in the East China Sea
As China and Japan continue to dispute sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, the East China Sea has become a hotbed of geopolitical tension. These uninhabited islands, despite their small size, have immense strategic value due to their location and potential natural resources. The conflict has prompted increased military activity in the region, with both countries flexing their maritime muscle.
In March 2024, Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force scrambled jets in response to suspected airspace incursions in the East China Sea, highlighting the ongoing tensions. This incident is just one of many that have occurred in recent years as both countries attempt to assert their claims to the disputed territory.
Disputes between China and its neighbors in the South China Sea have intensified in recent decades, while the territorial row with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea dates to the 19th century.
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Complex Legal and Historical Factors
A slew of legal and historical factors complicate the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is the primary legal mechanism for resolving maritime disputes; however, it does not apply to territorial sovereignty disputes. Because of this legal gap, China and Japan have been able to interpret maritime laws to their advantage, resulting in frequently conflicting claims.
Historical grievances and national identity are also important considerations in the dispute. The shift from the Sino-centric tributary system to the Westphalian system of international relations has had an impact on the legitimacy of East Asian maritime laws. Both China and Japan cite historical claims to justify their positions, which exacerbates the conflict.
Disputes between China and its neighbors in the South China Sea have intensified in recent decades, while the territorial row with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea dates to the 19th century.
Learn more from our timeline:https://t.co/JEqohoXFLs
— Council on Foreign Relations (@CFR_org) June 12, 2024
Escalating Military Presence
The situation in the East China Sea has become increasingly volatile, with China and Japan increasing their military presence. Following President Xi Jinping’s instructions to strengthen regional claims, Chinese Coast Guard patrols in the area reached an all-time high in 2023. Japan, in turn, has increased its military presence in the region.
The militarization of the dispute is particularly concerning given the inadequate mechanisms in place to prevent escalation. Existing de-escalation tools, such as the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) and the Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism (MACM), have limitations and may not be enough to avoid a potential conflict.
Broader Geopolitical Implications
The dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is not isolated. It is part of a larger geopolitical struggle in the East China Sea, where eight of the nine maritime boundaries are still unresolved. The conflict also reflects China’s overarching strategic goals, which include countering US military dominance and shifting regional power dynamics.
As China’s military modernization continues, experts warn that by 2035, it may be more aggressive in challenging Japan’s claim to the islands. This ongoing standoff has the potential to reshape international affairs in the region, with far-reaching consequences for regional stability and the East Asian power balance.
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