California Governor Gavin Newsom faces a significant obstacle in his 2028 presidential ambitions: black female voters remain fiercely loyal to Kamala Harris despite her 2024 loss to Donald Trump.
Harris Maintains Strong Base Support
Former Vice President Kamala Harris dropped hints about a 2028 presidential run, and while major donors express skepticism, she retains overwhelming support from black women voters. Washington Post exit polls show Harris captured over 92 percent of black female voters in 2024, a higher percentage than those who voted for Biden. This demographic represents the most loyal segment of the Democratic base, creating a formidable barrier for potential challengers.
Newsom’s Calculated Patience
Newsom reportedly believed Biden lacked capacity to run for reelection but refused to challenge Harris publicly. He understood black female voters would not accept a white male elbowing Harris aside from becoming the first female president and first black female president. The Los Angeles Times contacted over two dozen top donors to Harris’s biggest super PAC, finding several who declined future support or refused comment. Despite donor hesitation, Newsom recognizes he cannot overcome Harris’s base support among black women.
Defending Against Criticism
Many black female voters view criticism of Harris as both sexist and racist. TheGrio published an article in November 2021 titled: “Can a sista get a break? Kamala Harris is an easy scapegoat amid media’s broadside against her.” Writer Sophia A. Nelson, discussing the situation with Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority sisters, noted Harris receives insufficient respect considering black women voters delivered Biden’s White House victory. Nelson wrote that black women serve as “the mules of the world,” doing the work while receiving little thanks.
Political Reality Sets In
Harris lost every swing state and performed worse than Biden among nearly every major demographic except black women. Trump captured 20 percent of black male voters, an unusually high number for a Republican presidential candidate. Yet black women stood firm in their support. This reality creates a political calculation problem for any Democrat considering challenging Harris in 2028, particularly candidates who would need strong support from the party’s most reliable voting bloc to secure the nomination.
